复杂系统关键特征参数确定方法

A method of confirming critical characteristic parameters for complex system

摘要:

QMU方法能够在综合利用试验信息和数值模拟信息的基础上，通过揭示系统失效因素及量化其裕量与不确定性，对系统的综合性能做出合理的评价和认证，虽尚处于发展之中，但对复杂系统有效性评价具有借鉴意义。确定系统关键特征参数是QMU方法的关键技术之一。本文借鉴质量功能展开(QFD)等技术，主要运用关键特征参数展开矩阵，量化分析关键特征参数要求与特征参数间的关系度，最终确定产品关键特征参数。

Abstract:

Since Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to ban all nuclear weapons test explosions has been passed, Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties(QMU) for certifying the availability of the Nuclear Stockpile in the USA is a newly presented method. It is able to reveal the failure fact efficiently and give QMU in assessment combining with the information of tests and numerical simulations. Although QMU is still under development, it can provide a reference for the effectiveness evaluation of complex systems. The determination of the critical characteristic parameters is one of the key techniques in QMU. In this paper，a method is presented to quantitatively analyze the relational degree between the requests on critical characteristic parameters and the characteristic parameters，by utilizing the uncoiling matrix of critical characteristic parameters，then the critical characteristic parameters of the product are determined.