考虑故障模式相关性的模糊TOPSIS风险评价方法

Fuzzy TOPSIS risk evaluation method considering failure modes correlation

摘要:

故障模式、影响及危害性分析(FMECA)中基于风险优先数(RPN)的危害性分析方法，通常用来识别风险因素，确定关键故障模式和薄弱环节，提供决策依据。传统RPN中评价信息都是确定性信息，并且没有考虑故障模式的相关性。而在工作实际中，评价人员由于自身的属性和对评价对象的认识水平的限制，有时只能给出不确定评价信息，同时故障模式之间往往存在相关性，这都会影响最终危害性的分析结果。针对存在的问题，利用可靠性屋(HoR)来考虑故障模式相关性，针对三角模糊评价信息采用逼近理想解排序技术(TOPSIS)开展模糊RPN评价方法研究。最后结合实际案例，对不同情况下获得的RPN值进行比较。仿真结果表明，考虑故障模式相关性的模糊RPN评价方法，可以提高RPN值的可信度，为风险决策提供更可靠的依据。

Abstract:

Criticality analysis method based on Risk Priority Number(RPN) in Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis(FMECA), is usually utilized to identify risk factors, determine the critical failure mode and weak links to provide decision-making basis. In traditional RPN, the evaluation information is deterministic and the correlation of failure modes is not considered. In the actual work, the evaluators can only give uncertain evaluation information due to their own attributes and the level of understanding the evaluation objects. Usually there is correlation between failure modes, which will affect the final hazard analysis results. Aiming at the existing problems, the fuzzy RPN evaluation method based on Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) for the triangular fuzzy evaluation information is studied by using the House of Reliability(HoR) to consider the correlation of failure modes. Finally, the RPN values obtained in different cases are compared with the actual case. The results show that the fuzzy RPN evaluation method considering failure mode correlation can improve the reliability of RPN value and provide more reliable basis for risk decision.